Bettors Picks Predictor – Caulfield Group 3 Easter Cup tips

the bettor predictor had his eye on Day 1 of the Championships but saw a small loss on Day 2. Overall he found 7 out of 20 winners and proved to be very profitable for those who followed him.

Here’s the shot-by-shot championships:

Race 1 – Semillion @ $3.60 (1st) ✅
Race 2 – Flying Crazy @ $7.50 (6th) ❌
Race 3 – Roots @ $7 (5th)
Race 4 – She’s Ideel @ $5.50 (6th)
Race 5 – Another @ $9.50 (1st)
Race 6 – Fireburn @ $2.70 (1st)
Race 7 – Hitotsu @ $3.40 (1st)
Race 8 – Nature Strip @ $2.50 (1st)
Race 9 – I’m Thunderstruck @ $6.50 (2nd)
Race 10 – Sneaky Five @ $26 (13th)

Race 1 – Williamsburg @ $3.50 (1st)
Race 2 – Loch Eagle @ $2.35 (2nd)
Race 3 – Never Talk @ $2.20 (6th)
Race 4 – Paris Dior @ $4 (1st)
Race 5 – To Congo @ $2.45 (2nd)
Race 6 – Hinge @ $3.80 (4th)
Race 7 – The chosen @ $16 (18th)
Race 8 – Very Elegant @ $3.80 (5th)
Race 9 – Yonce @ $7.50 (4th)
Race 10 – Wandabaa @ $8 (4th)

Spending $100 on each run through the carnival would have earned you $2,920 out of $2,000 at a POT (Profit On Turnover) of 46%.

This week we focused on Caulfield by applying the tool to the G3 Easter cup.

G3 Easter Cup Predictor


Championship results were based on Predictor’s default settings, but the nature of the tool allows you to customize each form factor by weighting them according to what you think is important in a given race or races.

Here’s how we applied the Predictor to this Saturday’s G3 Easter Cup…

KEY FORM FACTORS

Weight 25%

Since this is a handicap, we gave this factor 25% importance because we know class horses reside somewhere near the top of the page. That said, we don’t want it to completely discount the more progressive types.

Barrier 25%

Barriers almost always play a part in the course of a race and a circuit like Caulfield can be tricky. That said, it’s a 2000m event, so we still went with 25% as luck and pace can be just as crucial as barriers.

Career success rate 50%, career placement rate 40%

Happy to emphasize horses that know how to find the winner’s circle. Place rate is also important because you want a horse that knows how to finish.

Career price 40%, average price 40%

We put them at 40% because we want to find horses that pick up the checks…regularly. That said, there is a surprisingly even distribution of prize money across the field, so adjusting this factor actually has very little effect on the end result.

This track 40% and the distance 40%

A good number of them have plenty of starts under their belts so we’d like to weigh that reasonably high weight as most will have competed at Caulfield and on this trip. And we want horses that have done it successfully.

Good lead 40%

They will run on a good track, so we increased that to 40% while leaving the remaining surfaces at default settings.



VERDICT

1. Defibrillation (7) @ $19

The default settings said Defibrillate (100%) and our custom settings say the same. Naturally, the horse is favored by weighting track and distance gains, but it should be – that’s where it does its best work (6:4-0-0) and it’s two out of two on the trail and the journey. He won this course first and has not been disgraced in two outings since. The draw is good considering he’ll settle in the back half and with blinders on first time out he should attack the line late at a very generous price.

2. King of Leogrance (1) @ $26

The second best is a galloper from the Williams team, but not Pondus, the race favorite. Instead, he found another valuable runner in King Of Leogrance (95%). Camelot’s son hasn’t won in over a year, but his best is certainly good enough for a race like this. The 2000m course is certainly below his best but he runs well above the ground and will find it more suitable than the G2 Blamey (1600m) he took over last month. His second best is handy (5:1-1-2) and he’s finished twice in three tries at Heath.

3. Zayydani (4) @ $11

Lindsay Park mare Zaydanni (88%) is the third best rater based on our metrics. The Savabeel daughter missed her only start at Caulfield but she was only 1.05L from Duais that day on this trip in the G3 Coongy. It’s another that has a very strong second-place record (4:1-2-1) and jockey Luke Nolen has won four out of six when engaged. The barrier (19) will not make her life easier, but she has a bit of class.



READ: Katelyn Mallyon’s tips and best bets for Saturday


ABOUT THE PREDICTOR

Available on the Punters website and app, at every Australian race each day, the Predictor uses a number of form factors as part of an algorithm to determine the most likely winner of each race.

With 18 form factors to choose from, bettors can select those that are most important to them and weight them accordingly.

Try your own Easter Cup prediction settings here:

Tipsters' Choice - Champagne Stakes

G3 Easter Cup Predictor

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