Newsom leads Dahle 52% to 25% in gubernatorial race in new UC Berkeley IGS poll
According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Tuesday, Governor Gavin Newsom currently has a 2-to-1 lead over Republican challenger Sen. Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) in the race for governor.
The IGS poll, the first major poll in the race, found that 52% of Californians would vote for Newsom, with just 25% voting for Dahle. 19% remain undecided, with 4% considering possible buyout options. Based on geography, Newsom beats Dahle in all regions. The largest gap is in the Bay Area, with Newsom a 64% to 16% margin, with the gap smallest in the North Coast/Sierra, Dahle’s Senate territory, with 38 representation % to 34%.
Among gender, race and age categories, Newsom also polls 50% or more in each demographic group, with Dahle’s supporters biasing older people and men. However, a big reason for this has been Dahle’s status as a political unknown to many in the race, with 58% of all voters being unfamiliar enough with Dahle to give an opinion according to the poll. A total of 53% of voters, including 80% of all Democrats, have a favorable opinion of Newsom, with 39% showing unfavorable opinions and 8% having no opinion. Dahle, meanwhile, has 24% favor, 18% disfavor and 58% no opinion.
When it comes to job performance, Newsom dips, with 53% approving of her performance, but 42% disapproving. Worse still for Newsom, 52% of all voters believe the state is on the wrong track, with the amount rising since the June primary. But, although Newsom remains lukewarm in terms of overall popularity and governance, he has still ousted Dahle and remains in the national spotlight due to speculation in recent months that he could run for president in 2024.
Newsom leads Dahle in California governor’s race
“Newsom isn’t doing so well, but he’s remained more positive than not with voters, so far,” Erica Ziegler, an election consultant who specializes in gubernatorial races, told The Globe on Tuesday. “He has beaten the drum and improved his image ever since, even vetoing more sweeping legislation he would have signed a few years ago to appeal to more people while keeping his base. Californians are concerned about crime , the economy, many Californians leaving the state, taxes, affordable housing and homelessness, and so far he’s managed not to get stuck on any of those issues like he’s been during the process of collecting signatures for the recall election with the French Laundry mask incident, he also oversees a large surplus, and for many, it’s hard to argue with a money-making governor.
“Actually, this election is not about Newsom’s strength, but about who was chosen by the GOP. Dahl. He’s a solid senator, but he has little recognition outside of far northern California. The majority of voters know nothing about him except his party and his name. It’s a huge problem. And it’s not like there aren’t any California Republicans who aren’t well known. It’s just that none of them showed up, so they went with one of the few people who showed up with political experience.
“Dahle needs traction, but right now it’s pretty tough. Besides name recognition, there are funding issues. Newsom’s war chest is $24 million, and he’s spending some of it out of state with ads elsewhere Dahl? $300,000 That’s a full scholarship to Stanford That’s peanuts compared to Newsom We all know it’s hard for the GOP to winning in California, but even here it’s kind of ridiculous.
“For Newsom, he just needs to get through and he’ll be fine. Dahle, he needs to capitalize on all of Newsom’s mistakes and really start slamming him on all these outrageous things he’s done or he’s just going to spin wheels. I think a goal for the GOP at this point is to keep Newsom below 60% and get Dahle over 38%, just to show that there’s been progress since 2018. And the poll shows that it can go both ways. Newsom is eyeing higher positions right now, and most candidates would do something while the other guy doesn’t have his eyes on the prize.
More polls are expected in the coming weeks to show how the race is progressing for both candidates.